Smart money’s on opponents

There’s a harsh reality that Patriots fans, and those who like to back the team at the gambling window, need to accept.

This team is mediocre, at best, on offense. The line is not protecting the quarterback. The receivers drop too many passes. And when Tom Brady isn’t on his back, he doesn’t have enough weapons (even with Rob Gronkowski back) to pile up points the way he has in the past.

Yesterday’s 30-27 loss to the Jets was the proof. After the depleted defense scored a touchdown and helped build a 21-10 halftime lead against an average (at best) opponent, the offense has to do better than two field goals in the second half.

Even if Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen eventually return, the Pats don’t seem to have an offense that will be efficient enough to win (and more importantly cover the spread), even against teams like Miami, Carolina and Pittsburgh.

The Patriots seemed to have a cover in the bag when they went into the locker room at halftime, but it all turned sour and our money went down the toilet. The Pats failed to cover as 31⁄2-point favorites, falling to 3-4 against the spread, and those who follow my picks dropped to 2-3. The teams did manage to beat the 431⁄2-point total, and over bettors improved to 3-4 in Pats games this season.

So what does this all mean for next week’s home game against the Dolphins? Well, the Pats will be favored by as much as a touchdown, but in order to cover, the offense will have to put up at least 24 points, possibly more. With Vince Wilfork, Jerod Mayo and maybe even Aqib Talib out again on defense, the Dolphins should be able to muster at least two touchdowns and a field goal.

It’s up to Bill Belichick, Josh McDaniels and Brady to get this thing figured out, and coming off a tough division loss, there will be extra motivation.

But remember that harsh reality. No matter what the motivation, the pieces just don’t seem to be in place for the offense to thrive. Hard work only goes so far.

The chalk will be too much to cover. The Pats might win, but not by much.

Take the Fish and the points.